🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still