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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."